A hybrid fuzzy modeling framework based on decomposed fuzzy sets and Z-numbers for risk prioritization in air traffic safety with a real case application

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Information Technology Institute, TUBITAK BILGEM, Kocaeli, Turkiye

2 Department of Industrial Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, ˙ Istanbul, Turkiye

3 Presidency of the Republic of T¨urkiye, The Undersecretariat for Defence Industries, Ankara, Turkiye

Abstract

The rapid growth of global air traffic increases the complexity of airspace management, especially around risk manage
ment. To address related safety challenges, this study presents an integrated risk analysis model consists of Functional
 Hazard Analysis (FHA), Decomposed Fuzzy Sets (DFS), Z-numbers, and Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). The model
 systematically accounts for uncertainty in risk parameters and integrates confidences for experts’ judgments. DFS
 assesses the consistency of experts’ evaluations, while Z-numbers represent their reliability. Severity, probability, and
 detectability are evaluated within this fuzzy framework, and risks are classified by using IFS-based approach aligned
 with the ICAO risk matrix. The model is applied on 11 critical hazard scenarios from the Advanced Surface Movement
 Guidance and Control System (A-SMGCS) based on high traffic and low visibility. Results obtained confirm the model’s
 ability to identify hazards and prioritize risks, offering a transparent, adaptable, and uncertainty-aware decision-support
 tool for aviation safety management.

Keywords

References

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Iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems
Volume 22, Issue 4
July and August 2025
Pages 37-55

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